News  ·  3 November Forecast for air traffic in 2027: Schiphol set to become quieter

Every year, Schiphol prepares a forecast for the next operating year. This operating forecast outlines the expected runway maintenance activities and the anticipated impact of air traffic on the surrounding area. The positive trend towards reduced aircraft noise around our airport, which has already been underway for several years, is expected to continue in 2027. 

The biggest contribution to this improvement comes from the increasing use of quieter aircraft. We encourage this through our airport charges. Airlines operating noisier aircraft to and from Schiphol pay higher fees, while those using quieter aircraft receive discounts. For the coming year, we expect around 45 percent of all flights to be operated using aircraft from the quietest noise categories.

With the operating forecast, we map out what our neighbours can expect in terms of air traffic, runway use, maintenance activities and anticipated noise impact in the coming year. The 2027 forecast shows that overall noise exposure will decrease as an increasing number of quieter aircraft operate at and from Schiphol. As a result, Schiphol is expected to be quieter in 2027 than in previous years. The number of people expected to experience severe noise disturbance is therefore projected to decrease to around 150,000. That is a 50 percent reduction compared with the year 2000, when around 300,000 people were classified as severely affected by aircraft noise.  

The projected reduction in noise exposure is consistent with the findings of the NOMOS noise monitoring system. These objective measurements, collected through around forty monitoring stations located on rooftops in the Schiphol area, show that newer aircraft types generate less noise than older models. Despite these positive forecasts and measurement results, local residents may still experience disturbance. That is why we remain committed to further reducing noise nuisance.

In the operating forecast, we also look ahead to planned maintenance activities and their impact on the surrounding area. Every year, we carry out essential maintenance on our runways to ensure they remain in good condition for safe air traffic operations. For each project, we carefully balance the execution of the work against its impact on local residents and air traffic. During maintenance periods, aircraft use alternative runways for take-offs and landings. 

In addition to routine maintenance, the Schiphol-Oostbaan Runway will undergo a major refurbishment from 20 March to 8 August 2027. This will be the most extensive maintenance project ever carried out on the Schiphol-Oostbaan. As this is our least frequently used runway and is primarily used by smaller aircraft, we expect the impact on local communities to remain limited. 

Alongside work on the runways themselves, we are also upgrading the surrounding infrastructure. In practice, this means it is not always possible to avoid carrying out major runway maintenance during the summer period. We believe it is important to be transparent about this, rather than creating expectations that we may not always be able to meet. We recognise that our neighbours may experience inconvenience during maintenance works. That is why we do everything we can to keep the duration of essential maintenance as short as possible.

The forecast outlines the expected runway use for the coming operating year. It provides Schiphol’s neighbours with insight into the anticipated number of aircraft movements, runway use, maintenance activities and expected noise around the airport. After all, the way Schiphol’s runways are used has a direct effect on the surrounding area. Each year, Schiphol publishes a forecast for the next operating year. The 2027 operating year runs from 1 November 2026 to 31 October 2027, reflecting the aviation industry's winter and summer seasons. The forecast is based on the latest scientific insights from the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), as well as the new Airport Traffic Decree (Luchthavenverkeerbesluit), which entered into force on 1 November 2026.